January 31, 2005

  • It is utterly astonishing how the national weather forecasts, such as those by The Weather Channel, differ from the local variety.


    Last night Don was telling me that according to the weather guy on channel 8, it'll be chilly today, tomorrow, and Wednesday, then warm up towards the weekend, but there's a chance of what's known as a "MacFarland Signature" the following week, meaning polar air will drop straight down from Canada.  There's also a slight possibility of winter precipitation, though it's too soon to tell.


    Still, TWC provides an extended forecast, which calls for 60's and 50's as the highs from Thursday of this week through Wednesday of next week (as far out as the forecast goes).  Nary a hint of a cold front.


    Its short term forecast is not reflecting the winter storm watch which has just been issued for the area for tomorrow night, either.


    It's been interesting, comparing our local forecasts to the nationals.  So far the latter have played catch-up all winter long, never "seeing" the cold until after the local forecasters have predicted it.


    Presumably there must be "tweaking" that's done by the local forecasters, taking into account varying factors which aren't plugged into the national weather computers.


    OTOH, once the cold or inclement weather appears on the national predictions, you know there really IS a pretty fair chance of it occurring.


    All in all, though, those extended forecasts are a joke.  I think it'd be interesting to print out the one from TWC and compare it to what the weather turns out to be.

Comments (3)

  • Just remember - the Indians are gathering wood like crazy!

  • Those weather froecasts are based on computer models.  Sometimes what happens is that the model will come up with disparate forecasts for the same data that's being fed into it becuase different outcomes can spring from one situation. So it's anyone's guess ( and this is where forecasts differ) which one will pan out, and only as time goes by can one begin to guess more accurately as to which one it will be. But you can count on one thing: the sun will come up and it will most likely go down too. If Jesus doesn't return that is. :D

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